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Present situation and development trend of tractor industry
The 15th Party Congress put forward "in the middle of the next century, the basic realization of the goal of modernization". Our country as a developing agricultural country, the realization of agricultural modernization is a priority, and agricultural mechanization is the important content of agricultural modernization and the basic signs, the tractor is the leading products of agricultural mechanization. The tractor has an important symbol of the level of agricultural mechanization, which is an important symbol to evaluate the level of Agricultural Mechanization in a country.
History and present situation of tractor industry
The tractor industry in our country is a new industry developed after the founding of the PRC. 1949, the country only has 117 tractors, all imported from abroad. After the founding of the country, the establishment and development of the tractor industry, it has become an important task of the mechanical industry. Our country is large and medium-sized tractor in the introduction of the former Soviet Union crawler tractor to T - 54, imitation wheeled tractor to T - 28, Foxon MT3 - 5 and the UK - 27, Foxon - 35 type based on began to develop, in 1959 began mass production, gradually entered the developed stage.
At present, China's large and medium-sized tractor product design has entered the stage of product development. From the 75 Dongfanghong crawler tractor for the development of Oriental red 802, red 902, East 1002 and East 1202 series models. The development of these new products the general technical level than the original model has greatly improved, increased transport stalls and job level, enhance the output of the power and the output of the hydraulic, can be assembled into more farm machinery includes a wide, duplex operation machine. The man-machine engineering, safety, comfort, and so on are greatly improved, and there are excavators, loaders, bulldozer and other engineering variants. For big power wheeled tractor has small batch puts in the market, in addition to day tow tractor 800 / 804 models, the introduction of products of a delayed LF80 - 904WD type, Shen drag 4450CL, self-developed products Yituo Dongfanghong 1004 / 1204, ha drag 1204 / 1404 type wheeled tractor and a trailer Dongfanghong 1002 / 1202 type crawler tractor has a batch of products put on the market.
Two, the status quo of domestic and foreign technology development
1 the status quo and problems of domestic technology
(1) industry situation is worrying. China tractor industry although it has made great progress, but compared to the large and medium-sized tractors, the level of product technology, quality, scale, quality and structure of enterprise with developed countries, from the overall analysis and did not significantly reduce the gap, to a difference of more than 20 years. In particular, the development of new varieties of products, product technology level, mechanical and electrical integration, man-machine engineering, electronic control and other aspects of the larger gap.
(2) fewer products, new product development speed and market demand change too fast not to adapt. Tractor as a farm machinery products, is a low profit enterprises, enterprises have always been very few funds invested in the development of new products and production equipment updates. The majority of products are very few technical reserves, production of decades of consistent system, low level of product, the trend of serious convergence. The lack of basic block varieties, multi type, multi type transportation, other applicable road less variant.
(3) product quality, reliability and service life can not meet the growing expectations of the user's expectations. Product reliability is poor, an assembly qualified rate is low, oil spills and screw loosening general faults are widespread, outstanding performance in the large tractor, the key components of the large tractor as a result of the technological level is limited, the quality is not up to the design requirements.
(4) and tractor farm machinery development and production are not synchronized, coordinated, influence the use function of tractor.
The status quo and development trend of foreign technology 2
Since 90 time, foreign tractor industry has entered a newstage of modernization. To speed up the pace of product updates, series of products to further improve, most of the products to achieve the integration of mechanical and electrical, intelligent, high efficiency, the appearance quality of car products.
(1) tractor series varieties to further improve product performance improvement. Foreign several famous tractor manufacturing enterprise technology development, to its dominant 2-3 a tractor and matching diesel machine series of short product based, continuous improvement, extended or derived a new series of products, series production is carried out. Variant then developed its leading products and supporting the work machine, to broaden the use and function of leading products. At the same time, the product coverage for related fields to expand, expand the variety and scope of application of the product, the market share in a wider range. Such as Deere & Company for 4000 series of supporting machine with bucket, front bulldozing shovel, scraper, Ripper, cleaning machine, pre loading machine, lawn mower, ditching machine, snow cleaning machine, stubble ploughing machine ten types of earthwork, lawn and sanitation equipment.
Product performance of tractor to the efficient operation of machinery development, such as the development of high speed, wide or ploughing, sowing, fertilization, irrigation and other compound operation machine and its supporting high power tractor or unmanned tractors. The application of advanced electronic technology and new type transmission system is the main weapon of competition, such as AGCO Corporation launched in North America the stepless gearbox and front suspension system, this kind of gear box in the shift without loss of time, fast speed, speed can be adjusted, the tractor is equipped with active front suspension system and suspensory cab.
(2) the full realization of hydromechatronics, intelligent. Foreign large and medium-sized tractors have been using microelectronic technology and computer technology, laser technology, sensor technology to product safety, energy saving, working device operation, working status and fault self diagnosis, inspection without disassembly of control and alarm, and achieved excellent economic benefit and social benefit. As companies launch new case of MX magnum Series tractors. The core of high technology is set up a controller area network, which can transfer tractor electronic control devices and equipment between the information, automatic compensation and self diagnose function. Dir companies from 8000 Series began to have been on a tractor equipped with machine fault diagnosis device, in the field at any time to diagnosis of tractor working in the fault, and gives the corresponding satellite positioning and navigation of the "Green Star" (Green Star) precision farming precision farming system.
(3) to further improve the level of manufacturing, computer numerical control (CNC), new materials and new technology applications, greatly improved the quality, life, reliability.
(4) the standardization of parts, the degree of generalization to further improve, to maximize the maintenance is to simplify the development of advanced technology is an important symbol of the development.
(5) the hydraulic technology is developing towards high pressure, high speed, large flow, high power, static and dynamic characteristics of the closed loop, and the structure is simple, light weight, low cost, reliable, durable and high level of development. At the same time, with the combination of microelectronics technology, to maximize the power utilization, reduce the idle consumption, so that the tractor engine is always in the best working state, reduce energy consumption. In addition, the development and application of hydrostatic transmission technology in the 90's and there was a further breakthrough.
Throughout the world tractor recent technology development and application, are widely used in computer and electronic monitoring system, high precision machine, electricity, liquid (gas) integration and other high-tech products. It is not difficult to see, to narrow the current gap in the design and manufacture of tractors, the task is very arduous. It requires we in quite a long period of time, perseverance, adhere to the road of technological innovation, from the basic technology research to the industrialization development of high technology, to perseverance of the spirit, a step by step to keep up with today's world the new tractor technology development.
Three, user needs analysis
1 demand characteristics
(1) China's rural areas is a low purchasing power market. In 1997, China's per capita net income of farmers is only 2090 yuan, a considerable part of the farmers are just out of poverty or poverty. According to the national vision development goal, the annual growth rate of farmers per capita net income is about 4%, which determines the tractor and other agricultural products market in general, see in a long period of time can only accept low price products.
(2) large and medium-sized tractors and the supporting agricultural machinery in agricultural production yield synergistic effect is becoming more and more recognized by more farmers. Mechanical work efficiency is high, can Baonong, grab season, mechanical tillage than animal power cultivation quality and for crop growth has created good conditions, mechanical operation accelerated the basic farmland construction, improvement of agricultural production conditions. And implements a full range of large and medium-sized tractor supporting the use of high efficiency, in use for a long time, good economic returns, to meet the desire of farmers to increase revenue, is one of the important means to the farmers become a lot of sale of market of region of hot.
(3) large and medium-sized tractor farm implements to science and technology transformation, promote tractor functions to further improve, supporting power continues to grow. Due to the further promotion of new agricultural technology. At present, the large and medium tractor supporting of deep loosening machine, refined small seeder, straw returning machine, plastic film mulching machine, fertilizer deep applicator, water-saving planting machinery and knapsack type rice and wheat, corn harvesters and other advanced and applicable agricultural machines has been widely farmers favored to become the necessary means to the promotion of new agricultural technology.
(4) the demand for large and medium tractors is increasing. With the popularization of the technology of deep loosening and compound operation, the power demand of the tractor is more and more large. In Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and other farming cultivate system, because of the large plots of land, high mechanization level, the A shares of dryland farming requires the use of 73.588.2kW (100 120ps) above the crawler tractor and 102.9 - wheeled tractor 132.4kW 140180PS and paddy field operation requirements use 44.1 - kW (60 - 80ps) of four wheel drive tractors; in other parts of the farm and farmer on Dryland operation requirements using 58.8 - 73.5kW (80 - 100ps) wheeled tractor, 51.5 - kW (70 80ps) crawler tractor, paddy field operation choice four wheel drive tractor 36.7 - 47.7kW (50 - 65PS).
2 user structure analysis
China tractor product consumer groups can be broadly divided into three parts:
The first part: state farms, farm system (production and Construction Corps);
The second part: the rural areas of China's more developed regions (regions with high degree of rural labor force transfer);
The third part: the general farmer individual.
The first part of the user are mainly distributed in the "Three North" region of our country, namely the northeast, northwest and North China in the vast area of, is China's major agricultural provinces. Large area, rich in agricultural resources, agricultural operations environment is relatively poor, higher requirements for tractor products.
State farm and Construction Corps mission field, the economic system of state-owned enterprises, self financing. Therefore, tractors and other agricultural machinery products as a result of the annual production of large investment, agricultural mechanization for their survival, development and growth is essential. For the characteristics of the demand for tractor products, mainly large and medium power drag the T machine, in the near future, especially the need for large power tractors.
The second part of the user mainly distributed since the reform and opening up, China's more developed regions, such as southern Jiangsu, Shanghai Hangzhou area, Shandong Province and the Pearl River Delta area. Its characteristic is the industry developed, the township enterprise develops quickly, the rural labor force transfer degree is high. Agricultural production also began to develop the scale of operation, the emergence of some large farming, agricultural specialist, and unified cultivation, unity in variety, the unified management of the system. So it can not be separated from agricultural mechanization. These areas to buy funds of large and medium-sized tractors, and other large agricultural products, mainly has three parts: City and county policy subsidies accounted for 10% - 50% range, rural subsidies accounted for 30% - 40%, individual investors 20% - 40%, its ownership belongs to third party, on station of agriculture machinery of use, this part of the region is a major market for middle power wheeled tractor.
In China more than 20 acres of farm households accounted for 7% of the total households, has a number of tractor accounted for 45.7%, which shows that large farming experience to the role of tractor in farmlands.
The third part of the user is distributed in other regions of China, mainly is less developed and more poor areas. Most farmers have just or are working to solve the problem of food and clothing, they are the main users of small power tractors, medium power tractors are also part of the market.
3 buyers purchase intentions
The State Information Center released in 1998, the tractor of farmers to buy ratio is 18.64%, may buy Tractor farmers percentage of 11.65%, and in 1995 compared intends to buy tractors ratio is greatly improved.
Four, market factors analysis
1 market sales structure
At present, the rural area of our country is still dominated by small tractor, but its growth has slowed down significantly. 18.4 - 29.4kW (25 - by 40PS) wheeled tractor demand growth, in some areas has been the beginning of substituted for the field operation of a small four-wheel products. 1995 - 1997, due to the bear type mower market pull, 36.847.8kW 5065PS of wheeled tractor is market demand rise. But harvester market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, especially by self walking type combined harvester and small harvester attack on both sides, in recent years bear type mower market disruption, the impact of the sales of the products. 58.8kW (80PS) above wheeled tractor is blank, in recent years, rapid growth, the product is not on demand. But because these models are not mature, product reliability is poor, the impact of the market sales, almost unable to meet market demand. Foreign models with the file imports increased obviously take advantage of a weak point. The output of caterpillar tractor has the trend of decreasing year by year. This trend will become more and more obvious if we do not accelerate the development of a new type crawler tractor.
2 product import and export analysis
China's large and medium-sized tractor export price is low, high performance and price ratio, there is a certain market. 761029 in recent years, the export volume of large and medium drag is a growth trend, China's major manufacturers have a certain number of major export.
Due to the large and medium-sized tractors in China are mainly labor and resource intensive products, compared with developed countries, there is a considerable gap. From the point of view of statistical data, the export volume of each enterprise fluctuates greatly, which shows that the export of tractor in our country is not a stable international market. Export products due to the quality of the clearance, the service is not in place, the market will lose. And the development of new products, to enter the international market, the need for time and funds, and by the process of production equipment conditions limit. At present, China's large and medium-sized tractor manufacturers still lack a certain international competitiveness. At the same time, export operating mechanism is not standardized, export channels chaos, instability in the quality of export products, complete sets of machinery supporting small, after-sales service and disjointed, adds to the hard to enlarge the international market.
Because of China's large wheeled tractor production is low, quality is not stable, in recent years, imports of high-power wheeled tractors showed an increasing trend. China's accession to the WTO, foreign tractors and other agricultural products, including the inevitable into china. China's agricultural products in general, regardless of the appearance and connotation of quality, do not have a competitive advantage. But in the product price, in the production of enterprises to enjoy some preferential policies of the state, the protection of national industrial development is not a foreign agricultural machinery business. National policies to encourage the use of domestic agricultural products, should be mentioned on the agenda.
3 product market price trends
Because of the shortage of production capacity, the large tractor in China is in the development stage, and the medium tractor has more market competition than the market demand. In recent years, although smaller than the small tractor market competition is smaller, but the price level has declined year by year. Enterprise funds are tight, Waiqian and stock funds rose, enterprise benefit is not high, business is very difficult. Tractors and other agricultural products is in the national agriculture policy under the influence of profit of products in the long run, the industry labor productivity is low, backward production technology, equipment aging, resulting in product cost, quality and grade are unsatisfactory. In recent years, many powerful small tractor manufacturers have begun to develop the production of medium-sized wheeled tractor, which will aggravate the market competition. Large and medium drag products market is expected to run at low prices.
4 product market share ranking
In recent years, large and medium-sized tractor industry sales before the three basic yto Group Corporation, Shanghai drag within the company, a tractor factory in Shandong, market share rate in 15% - 25%, the more obvious advantages. From the point of view of product file, 18.4 - 29.4kW (25 - by 40PS) of wheeled tractor is mainly tractor factory in Shandong, 1998 market share for the tractor 51.8%; followed by a drag Ningbo Zhongce company market share of 21.6%. Shanghai tuonei wheeled tractor of 36.8 - 47.8kW (5.0 - 65PS), market share rate of 55.8% of the tractor of the file, the second is Tianjin tractor factory, market share rate was 32.4%; crawler tractor lug company exclusive possession.
5 product market distribution and market analysis
The users of the tractor market in our country can be divided into three parts: the state farm, the more developed area and the individual farmer. Our country has a vast territory, the regional economic development is not balanced, the agricultural natural condition difference is very big. Under the condition of the coexistence of many kinds of management modes, the demand of the tractor must be diversified, and the level of the tractor is different. State farms and fewer people and more northeast, northwest and other remote areas mainly kW or more large wheeled tractors and crawler tractors, supplemented by 36.8 - 55.1kW and medium-sized wheeled tractor. And with heavy soil area and wetland reclamation and basic farmland construction and water conservancy projects require large crawler tractor. With the development of moderate scale management of agricultural households and agriculture, in the northeast, northwest, North China and some economically developed regions of the small scale farms and agricultural specialist, with medium wheeled tractor. The majority of small scale farmers need small wheeled tractors and. Paddy field farming requires small and medium sized four wheel drive tractor. Sales accounted for more than 10% of the total sales in the provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu; more than 5% of the provinces are: Heilongjiang, Hebei, Xinjiang, Henan. These six provinces as the main sales area of China's large and medium tractors. Together accounted for about 60.8% of the total sales of the country.
Five. Market forecast
1 market capacity forecast
Per mu of farmland owned large and medium-sized tractors, 1998 in China for 506 (if by land 19 million mu of calculation only 3.8 and Taiwan), than the United States, Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Japan the basic realization of agricultural mechanization per mu of cultivated land ownership were less 1.24, 1.74, 15.54, 6.24, 15.74, 52.84 and Taiwan. So from the basic realization of agricultural mechanization and equipment level analysis, China's large and medium-sized tractor market potential demand is very large.
In 1998, national large and medium-sized tractor has 72.11 million units is following the 1997 have increased, the end for 9 consecutive years large and medium-sized tractor ownership from 88.10 million units to 67.08 million units, with the amount of recovery of the second year. Using Delphi method, forecast the market demand of large and medium-sized tractor of various grades of the fifteen period are as follows:
(1) large wheeled tractors: "fifteen" period, the domestic market demand will remain a strong trend, the domestic demand is expected to reach 2500 - 4000 units per year. Also with the big wheel tractors technology continues to mature, pass the quality and reliability, using low-cost advantages, expand exports to developing countries. This year, the total demand for large wheeled tractor in the "fifteen" period will reach 3000-5000 taiwan. The 88.2kW (120PS, above the big wheel tractor number is 200 - 500 taiwan.
(2) caterpillar tractor: "fifteen", the crawler tractor will maintain a certain market share. With the development of new products of large crawler tractors, improve product performance, quality of clearance, the formation of production capacity, and further open up the international market, engineering variant products to further expand and crawler tractor in the "Tenth Five Year" period average annual total demand is about 12000 - 15000 units, which 73.5kW (100ps) above high power crawler tractor as the main demand models, products will be state of supply.
(3) medium-sized wheeled tractors: the market of medium sized wheeled tractors is still the main market of the large and medium-sized tractors during the period of "fifteen". Its annual demand is 70 thousand - 6 units. Among them, 36.8kW (50PS) above the middle and 18.4 - 33.1kW (25 - 45PS) in the drag about half of each.
2 product market trends
According to the previous market forecast and analysis, it can be considered that the large and medium-sized tractor products market, although the potential demand is very large. But in quite a period of time only steady growth, there will be no high-speed growth. Future market focus in the following areas:
One is to update the market. Heilongjiang, Shandong, Hubei, Xinjiang, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and other provinces and autonomous regions of large and medium-sized tractors have the largest, these 10 provinces accounted for 76.2% of the country's large and medium drag. Is the tractor to update the main market, and due to the use of the habit of factors, these markets still have a certain potential.
The two is the land reclamation system, state farm, is the main market of large power tractor. They attach great importance to agricultural investment, purchasing power, the use of relatively high level.
Scale management and specialized business to promote the demand of large and medium-sized tractor and matching of agricultural machinery and tools. These areas mainly in rural economy more developed regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei and other provinces and cities, these areas are middle power tractor in the main to the market, with the development of the rural economy, scale management and specialized business area will continue to expand and potential market demand is larger.
Four is the implementation of the subsidy policy for large and medium-sized tractors to implement a good region, the completion of the update is also a relatively good plan. Because of China's large and medium owned by about 77% of the amount of all farmers, while the general farmers to buy large and medium-sized tractor economic strength is not up to. At present, many countries and regions such as multi areas subsidies to encourage the farmers to purchase large and medium-sized tractors and agricultural machinery. Where the implementation of subsidy funds are better, the market for large and medium-sized tractors is better.
The five is the development of large and medium-sized tractors, agricultural machinery, will drive the development of tractor market. Large and medium-sized tractor and matching of farm machinery in agricultural production yield synergistic effect is becoming more and more recognized by more users. So as to adapt to new technology in agriculture tillage whole, planting and harvesting of the agricultural development, popularization and application, will promote the development of large and medium-sized tractor market.
Six, product structure adjustment
1 Yield Structure
Our crawler tractor output is mainly 51.5 - 58.8kW (70 - 80PS) model, 73.5kW (100PS) and its power output is very small. Wheeled tractor is mainly 18.4 - 22.1kW (25 - 30PS) models and 36.8 - 47.8kW (50 - 65PS) models. Other power segment models yield very little. Some power is still blank.
2 the trend of product structure adjustment
At present, China's large and medium-sized tractors are in the stage of product structure adjustment. Tractor industry in the "85", "Ninth Five Year Plan" period, there are some investment, but the focus is not prominent, repeated construction and low level trend of assimilation production is still very serious, resulting in product market not only has a large surplus and shortage of structural contradictions.
Is the production of wheeled and crawler tractors, the highest yield is still at the end of the 60's and early 70's international level products. China's technology introduction of dill and Fiat of large and medium-sized wheeled tractor for the 1980s in Xiang T level, but also able to mass production. TY2540 wheeled tractor series products also is improved and production preparation stage, also able to mass production. The structure and performance of the product is backward, poor reliability is widespread problem of tractors in china. In the machine and ancillary diesel engine and man-machine engineering, including handling, comfort and safety, noise, emissions and other aspects of the gap is more obvious, the reliability problem is particularly prominent, tractor product of our country average failure free not to 1 / 2 of similar foreign products. For a long period of time, the adjustment of product structure, improve the reliability and technical performance of products, the main task is large and medium-sized tractor industry.
(1) realistically summed fifteen years to the introduction of large and medium-sized wheeled tractor manufacturing technology and domestic experience, continue to in-depth introduction of digestion and absorption of technology and domestic research work, according to the introduction of manufacturing technology of large wheeled tractor products in quality assurance of batch production.
In 80 years, our country has introduced the dill and Fiat co large and medium-sized wheeled tractor manufacturing technology. After the trial, that this kind of tractor operation with high efficiency, good reliability, good comfort, the use of the characteristics of the economy, is the ideal replacement product. Have a good market prospects for export. Due to various reasons, these products have so far failed to achieve mass production, most participants introduced enterprises even actually stopped production and domestic work. For the introduction of products and need to countries in the macroeconomic regulation and control, continue to give support in the capital and in the user purchase to give certain preferential policies. In the "fifteen", must make it stable mass production and to enter the international market. The introduction of technological innovation of products should be based on the absorption, according to different market demand for simplified variant, reduce the cost to meet the requirements of low level of consumption area.
The digestion and absorption of imported technology development two times, another way is the development of China's large wheeled tractor. Technology development of large tractor in our country should be in joint venture cooperation and self development research foundation, take the combination of self design and development, technical innovation part imported from abroad and part of the key parts of the two roads, secondary development. In the research and development of high performance engine, transmission system of mechanical electrical hydraulic integration, electronic control of the operating system gradually increase investment, from easy to difficult, steady development, make the product from the technical performance, price level and the use and the operation are convenient and comfortable to the foreign demands of the majority of users.
(2) stepping up the transformation of the existing medium wheeled tractor products, to achieve a series of varieties, development direction. Medium wheeled tractor existing products, from single type development, in terms of functionality, performance, reliability and economic indicators with the international advanced level there is a big gap. The enterprises in the digestion and absorption of imported technology based on the improved structural performance, improve power, development work on the series of products. In order to better meet the needs of agriculture and other departments of the tractor product demand, in addition to the basic type of tractor, to grasp the development of a variety of forms. For example, in cultivation management, paddy field four wheel drive, with variant aircraft engineering. Although the market capacity is not variant, but a single high added value, can produce good economic benefit also.
(3) the development of large-scale agricultural tractors and industrial products. Based on the crawler tractor, an industrial tractor with semi - Steel crawler walking device is developed to meet the needs of the earthwork operation. At the same time, in order to improve the operating speed and convenient transfer of crawler tractor, strengthen competition ability of large wheeled tractor, should actively tracking foreign rubber tracked tractor new technology and development of 95.6 - 121.3kW (130 - 165ps) crawler tractor and rubber crawler tractor system products listed.
(4) active and foreign famous tractors
Enterprise cooperation, joint venture factories, improve product quality and technical level quickly. This is also the development of large and medium-sized wheeled tractors and the corresponding diesel engine of a way. At present, the days drag on Tiantong group, a drag, and other enterprises are actively exploring the possibility of this area. This can improve our tractor products and management level, process level quickly etc.
3 introduction of technology products
Enter since the "Ninth Five Year Plan" period, due to the urgent needs of the domestic market, and foreign companies products a large influx of pressure, some of the backbone enterprises began to attach importance to the technology introduction and digestion and absorption of, and at the same time, the attention to by enterprises with foreign joint ventures, cooperative channels to as soon as possible to promote the technological progress and reverse the passive situation of the contradictions in the supply and demand market. The upsurge of a new round of the introduction of CO production of tractors has just begun, Shijiazhuang Tiantong group and Finland Valmet companies have reached a cooperation intention, joint marketing tractor; Holland company and Heilongjiang Land Reclamation System of group of the Great Northern Wilderness of Harbin Hongqi machinery factory signed a joint venture contract, the assembly Holland company M110, M160 (110 and 160ps) such as tractor product sales in the domestic market and export; drag Deere & Company and the day of the joint venture company has been listed on the operation, dragged on, dragging, and other large enterprises also actively with the overseas famous tractor company discuss the possibility of cooperation in the production. So, not too long and narrow the technological level of advanced countries in the world of tractor production gap, accelerate product upgrading.